Mikk Salu: waiting for war?

Photo: ITAR-TASS / Scanpix

On the emotional level, one may understand opponents of Estonian-Russian border treaty. Justice is on our side. Even so, on the rational level it’s really hard to follow these ideas. For: what’s the alternative? What’s the solution they would offer? Come to think of it, they admit there’s nothing Estonia could really do. It’s not like we could just elect ourselves another foreign minister who would waive his arms wilder and talk with a voice more booming, bringing a breakthrough. No, there’ll be no miracle. And so, the solution they’re talking about is to wait. Let’s not enter a treaty, let’s wait for times better and more fitting.

But when will the better times come? History, both of Estonia and or other European countries – and, probably, of all the nations of the world – shows there are only one kind of times that state borders change. Wars. And wakes of them. So are we waiting for a war? Hardly. And, should that come – knock on wood! – Estonia will have weightier issues to solve than whether the border fall on this side of Petseri, or on that side, by five kilometres.

In any other case than that of a very large or a very rich country (better yet, both), whose actions turn the world, another kind of foreign policy strategy seems to apply. That’s the take-the-chance-and-grab-every-opportunity strategy.

By this, Estonia has been well served. As in 1918, when a momentary window opened up as Russian troops pulled out and the German ones hadn’t arrived – even though, then also, some advised to wait for times more peaceful. It also served us well during the regain-the-independence times of 1988–1992 when we got all of Russian troops out. It served us well as we got into EU and NATO, even while in all of these cases some were saying let’s wait some more, maybe gaining some better treaty clause, find some better time. In hindsight, of course, we may always detect the details to find fault with; in the big picture, the seize-the-opportunity strategy works.

Those who wait haven’t been so lucky. Moldova is still waiting for Russian forces to leave the banks of Dniester. Same with Ukraine, regarding Sevastopol. Georgia also waited, then tired of waiting and decided to help things along, indeed getting the thing that changes borders. A war. Yet, by the changes, they were left worse off.

Yes, Japan is also waiting for a border treaty with Russia. For seventy years they have been waiting and if needed, they will wait for seventy more. Japan can afford it, being very big, very rich and very much an island. Also, contrasting the case of Estonia which has its entire state border with Russia undetermined, for Japan and Russia the debate is only over a couple of rocks. By the way, at yesterday’s Estonian-Russian border treaty signing press conference, Sergei Lavrov also answered a Japan-related issue, in his reply thrice repeating the phrase «war created reality». Must it be put any plainer? Wars draw borders. Shall we wait?