Reform Party playing slow chess

Photo: Peeter Langovits

Reform Party chairman Andrus Ansip claims the party is only starting to discuss his successor, despite leaked letter by Siim Kallas wherein the latter seeks support for prime ministerial ambitions.

At the end of last week, Mr Kallas wrote confidentially to top party cadre and parliamentary faction, asking if addressees were willing to stand for him as prime minister candidate should Andrus Ansip decide to leave office.

Yesterday, Mr Ansip announced at Riigikogu that «the party is only discussing the matter» and «doubtless the party /…/ will arrive at the right timing and decision».

To the journalists present in the parliament building, Mr Ansip specified that «at the latest, it is planned to nominate the prime ministerial candidate in summer, after EU elections».

That prime ministerial candidate, presumably Mr Kallas, will have to lead Reform Party into the 2015 Riigikogu elections and, as hoped by Mr Ansip, take the victory. Till the elections, a little over a year remains.

At that, the incumbent prime minister gave no substantial answers regarding his own future moves despite the widespread version of him becoming Estonia’s next EU commissioner.

Ten years abroad

Mr Kallas, currently vice president at European Commission, served as prime minister in 2002–2003 in a coalition government with Centre Party. Before that, he was finance minister in a three-party-cabinet, and foreign minister in a government with Koonderakond (Estonian Coalition Party) and Maarahva Ühendus (Rural Union).

Siim Kallas last run in Estonian elections in 2003, pocketing 10,008 votes in Harju and Rapla Counties as No 1 of Reform Party. He never joined the Juhan Parts’ government which was consequently formed. In January 2004, the government of Mr Parts unanimously confirmed Mr Kallas as Estonian’s candidate for EU commissioner.

During these past ten years, Mr Kallas has served as vice president of European Commission; for the first term, he dealt with administrative issues, the second term dedicated to transportation. With a few exceptions, during that time Mr Kallas has been quite careful when publicly commenting on Estonian domestic policy and economy.

Should Mr Kallas now desire to become prime minister, for many this will come across as déjà-vu from the times over a decade ago, when Mr Ansip – currently the longest serving EU prime minister in office – was only known as Mayor of Tartu.

Back then, the Kallas’ government came about as three-party-coalition fell apart, the main trigger being the embarrassing defeat at presidential elections. As Centre Party and People’s Union of Estonia (Rahvaliit) struck hands, Arnold Rüütel beat the Reform Party favourite Toomas Savi. In the name of Mr Savi’s success, Reform Party had been putting brakes on the administrative reform quite diligently pushed by Pro Patria Union (Isamaaliit, now part of IRL). Unwilling to anger local government leaders voting within the presidential electorate body, the Reform Party still failed to push Mr Savi into presidency.

Estonia into Europe

The government of Prime Minister Kallas set it as its main aim to conclude accession talks with the European Union and achieving membership of NATO. In that, Mr Kallas proved a success.

The decision to accept Estonia into NATO was passed in fall, 2002, at the Prague summit. EU accession talks were concluded by the end of 2002. The accessions only took place in 2004; even so, under Mr Kallas’ government, the bulk of essential preparations were completed. 

Working in government of Mr Kallas had a strong impact on its Centre Party ministers. While, in 2003, Edgar Savisaar took a cold stand towards joining the European Union and the party officially assumed a negative approach, the ex-ministers from the Kallas’ government explicitly favoured accession. Later, most of them ended up leaving Centre Party altogether; Sven Miser, for instance – defence minister in Mr Kallas’ government – now chairs the soc dems.

The Kallas comeback may raise an issue: isn’t the chess rook like that performed by Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev, of Russia, exchanging prime ministerial and presidential jobs? A parallel like that, for instance, was drawn by Andres Herkel, currently busy founding a new party. The similarity is still superficial, as, contrary to Russian presidential elections, Estonian parliamentary elections result isn’t pre-known.

In opinion polls, left-wing Riigikogu parties have for a long time run ahead of the current coalition, leading to public expectations of a left turn. IRL, Reform Party’s coalition partner, did relatively well at local elections last fall, now sees itself as Estonia’s strongest right wing party, and aims at winning Riigikogu elections itself.

At that, Estonian law does not prescribe that prime minister be selected from among members of parliament. Should the incumbent prime minister leave office in the middle of election cycle, the proposal to create a new government is made by the President. For any politician to become prime minister, support by parliamentary majority is essentially required.

In theory, Mr Kallas may form a functioning government till spring of 2015 with support by IRL, Centre Party of soc dems – with any of these, they could count on stable parliamentary majority.