Kallas the Premier, Ansip the Commissioner

Photo: Mihkel Maripuu / Postimees

As announced to party cadre by Siim Kallas, he isn’t after Estonian Presidency – having a different ambition altogether.

Brainstorms between EU commissioner Siim Kallas and Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, last year, regarding roles of Estonia’s next premier and European commissioner, have birthed a letter to Reform Party tops wherein Mr Kallas lets it be known that he’s ready to head the next government.

Also, Mr Kallas explains that unlike the widespread media opinion, he’s not hunting the head of state spot: «My motive is not entering office of President of Estonia in 2016, no matter how determined the rumours. I don’t care where I’ll be buried at Metsakalmistu [cemetery with section for dignitaries – edit] or elsewhere.»

Mr Kallas noted he was searching for allies within the party: «Whoever is ready to row, is welcome in my boat.»

One valuable companion has already been found – Mr Ansip affirmed he considers Mr Kallas a very valuable Prime Ministerial candidate.

«In 2018, Estonia assumes EU presidency. Mr Kallas is the politician most weighty, with a wide international grasp, who might, over that period, be trusted with the office of prime minister,» said Mr Ansip. «At the moment, I can see no other comparable to him.»

Despite of working abroad for years, Mr Kallas still enjoys a very good reputation within the party. «The longer he’s been away in Brussels, the more he’s idolized as god,» is how the man’s image was put by a member of the party council.

By his letter, Mr Kallas seized initiative before foreign minister Urmas Paet, who had been considered another possible candidate for party chairman and prime minister. «Paet would be a non-risk choice, but not much of a win. Rather, he’s in the Sven Mikser and Urmas Reinsalu category, as a politician. With Kallas, the party has a much bigger chance to win. There’s a gambler in Siim,» a party member assesses the chances of the two.

As a probable sequel to the political deal, becoming the prime minister, Mr Kallas sets Mr Ansip up as the next European commissioner. Within the party, Mr Ansip has been saying he wouldn’t want to set up his own candidacy.

Mr Ansip’s candidacy will not necessarily fit IRL, hungry for the job itself. As change of prime minister equals creation of a new government, Mr Kallas may choose another coalition partner for Reform Party. For IRL, however, it would be impossible to form a government without the Reform Party, as the IRL chairman Urmas Reinsalu recently confirmed his party would not cooperate with Centre Party.

The Kallas letter smells of strong criticism regarding management of Reform Party. He says, for instance: «I want the majority of Estonian people to believe us, that we would understand the worries and expectations of the people the best. That the business world and the intellectuals would be with us.»

According to a leading figure in the party, the criticism is not directed towards Mr Ansip, rather towards the broader aspects of party management. «But if Ansip would not leave his place, Kallas would not become prime minister. Then, the same old would continue,» notes he.

For a time, Mr Kallas was so disappointed in the way the party was governed that he joked about creating a new one. The search for a new Reform Party leader was launched two years ago.

On February 23^rd, 2012, Mr Ansip announced in a speech at a reception by Mayor of Tartu: «The next government will no longer formed by me – neither before nor after the new Riigikogu is elected,» said Mr Ansip. «No doubt, worthy successors abound.»

After that, for a while some younger politician was considered as new squirrel party chief. Of those, several held student evaluation type conversations with the prime minister.

The first to drop out the race was party’s former secretary-general Kristen Michal. His fatal blow was limelight in the Silvergate scandal. Mr Michal denied the party had received black money via him.

During criminal investigations, acts worthy of punishment were not discovered in Reform Party financing; even so, public pressure on Mr Michal became unbearable so he stepped down as minister of justice.

For Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, bankruptcy of her father’s carriage company Autorollo became fatal. A creditor suspects Ms Pentus participated in peculating assets out of the company. The scandal allows for Ms Pentus-Rosimannus to continue as environment minister; with a background like this, however, she could never head up an entire government.

Hanno Pevkur has excelled both as social minister and justice minister; even so, he is considered too soft. Instead of stepping into a fight, Mr Pevkur rather tries to compromise.

Of the list, the last man standing is Mr Paet. Very popular among the people, he has drifted a bit far from Estonian affairs, being foreign minister. Still, who could keep him from running for party chairman and head of government?

Kaja Kallas, daughter of  Siim Kallas, has never features as prime ministerial candidate, lacking sufficient support at party top. She does, however, hunger for a seat at European Parliament.

Finally, Mr Ansip turned to Siim Kallas – the former chairman of the party. No matter that their relationship isn’t the best after Silvergate (back then, Mr Kallas favoured a different approach as the party headquarters opted for).

Now, Mr Kallas will have to provide the party with some boost. When Mr Ansip steps down isn’t known yet. When will he announce it? Not known, either. Speculations say the news might be broken next week; some have mentioned February 23^rd, the usual date for colourful speeches by Mr Ansip. As well as April 13^th, as nine years will pass from him becoming prime minister.

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Siim Kallas’ letter to party comrades regarding becoming prime minister

Dear Reform Party board and faction members!

At the end of last year, the party chairman Andrus Ansip asked me if I was willing to become prime minister should Prime Minister desire to step down earlier than after the 2015 elections.

I have hesitated a lot, I have discussed this with various people within and outside the party.

I’m addressing you, party leadership and [parliamentary] faction, to hear your opinion. I think all board and faction members have a right to equal information, whence the letter.

1. The goal I’m motivated by is Estonia’s EU presidency in 2018. This is a lot more than just excellently organising 1,000 meetings, which Estonian officials no doubt can manage well enough. This is a chance to show the so-called Old Europe how much better than they we really are. I have been charging myself with this motivation, stirring it up for close to 10 years. Should the party, today, consider me a fitting prime ministerial candidate, then I will enter the elections with the aim to win them and to continue as president till 2018, minimum, holding the position during EU presidency. My motive is not entering office of President of Estonia in 2016, no matter how determined the rumours. I don’t care where I’ll be buried at Metsakalmistu or elsewhere.

2. There are debates, in Estonian society, regarding administration of Estonia’s politics and the future of its economy. I would want Reform Party to take the lead in these discussions, that we would have the most convincing standpoints, the best ideas, that we would be trusted. I want the majority of Estonian people to believe us, that we would understand the worries and expectations of the people the best. That the business world and the intellectuals would be with us. We cannot leave a huge mental vacuum for people who are mere talkers.

3. My views, broadly speaking, are the same as stated in Kodanike Riigi Manifest [citizens state manifesto, a Reform Party paper – edit] of 1994.

4. I am convinced that possible changes at party management are to be publicly discussed in party management, faction, council and general assembly.

5. Whoever is ready to row, is welcome in my boat.

I am ready to present a more detailed action plan in a programme speech at general assembly of the party, should the need arise.

All other complicated issues as the possible coalition and distribution of job positions, can be discussed later, if party leadership and faction have explicitly decided if they wish to see me as the party’s prime minister candidate should Andrus Ansip decide to leave office.

Honourable board and faction members! I will be waiting for your decision.

This missive is meant for addressees alone, to be discussed within the party, not for the public at large.  

Siim Kallas

February 7^th, 2014.

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Who could Siim Kallas form a new government with?

Reform + IRL

Totalling 56 votes*

Safe numerical majority at votes. Even so, due to human relationships and mutual boredom, the union may collapse before the 2015 Riigikogu elections.

Reform + Centre

Totalling 55 votes*

A version tried out before the earlier government of Mr Kallas, to the satisfaction of both parties – piously remembering the smoothest of coalitions. Would make Centre Party OK again, in high society.

Reform + soc dems

Totalling 58 votes*

Reform Party will remember stubbornness and complexity of soc dems from when the triple coalition split. As announced by soc dem chief Sven Mikser, he wants to be prime minister himself, after 2015. The party, however, is strongly pushing Jevgeni Ossinovski.

Cooperation with soc dems has also been probed by IRL, but these two together would not have votes enough.