Whither falls the diplomatic bargain?
Editorial: a year on auto pilot
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Classic political science comes with the notion of standard operating procedures (SOP), speaking of whatever upholds the system. This year, Estonia will be testing its SOP.
In high likelihood, in 2014 we will see our political top change: prime minister, foreign minister, perhaps some others as well. The commissioner will change; the MEP pack will be shuffled. This will stress-test the SOPs of all Estonian parties.
The tests will be the more severe as it will all be happening with limited time of advance notice – and as publicly as possible. Politics are falling victim to itself. In 20th century, the rule of thumb was not to discuss sensitive subjects publicly. Rule of thumb for 21st century: whatever subject is discussed in secret, will remain sensitive. In the turmoil of the change, balance is harder to find – still, it is ever more important for the internal and external stability of a small country.
For the time being, all we have is omens. Seeing that a man like Andrus Ansip is about to visit the Sochi Olympics, a fortune teller might detect a gambit aimed at a seat at European Commission. As neighbourhood commissioner. In post-Ukrainian conditions, Mr Ansip’s long-time love for Central Asia can only be good. In light of promise by Ansip to leave, Reform Party will have to find a fresh prime minister. For starters, the party ought to find the hat to pull a PM out of: heirs apparent don’t grow on trees – especially in regard to hints of Urmas Paet perhaps pressing for European Parliament.
The new prime minister must find favour with lucky stars: the society will have to trust a person, in all probability, with no prior prime minister experience. Perhaps not even any minister experience. IRL must overcome the temptation to stick a knife in the back of the weakened Reformers. At that, IRL will have to pretend that its leadership, with its six ministers, is for the party a greater treasure than Eerik-Niiles Kross. Reform Party must overcome the temptation to go for an emergency coalition with Centre Party – and vice versa. Soc dems must overcome the temptation to do nothing at all.
Media must not yield to the temptation to heap every mess on new prime minister. The mess will be manifold: starting with loss of economic growth and exodus, finishing with administrative reform in periphery happening according to laws of nature.
A huge test will be communications with outside world. Mr Ansip has been the must-have of European Councils, the single Estonian face Angela Merkel might recognise. Our periphery-hood stressed by the strengthening of the double harness of Carl Bildt/ Radek Sikorski soon to visit Iran. Under that cart, Urmas Paet will not fit for fifth wheel status.
In the muddy waters, ritual and ceremony will emerge as important SOPs. As, perhaps, offered by the border treaty: should things go smooth, this might offer Estonia some stability. Still, all main questions will be begging an answer. The most main being: with whom will we do our diplomatic bargaining – with our good faith and hope in the future? Or with Russia?