For city slickers, nice bus beats free ride

Illustration: Pm

When choosing between bus and walking, price counts. Options being bus and car, quality comes into play.

Scientists say that, in Tallinn, free public transport only added 1.2 per cent to passengers (Tallinn City Govt proclaims the percentage to be 9.4). Meanwhile, in Tartu, new buses added 3.3 per cent to passenger turnover – over the first year. In three years time, the Tartu increase is a whopping 13.5 per cent. 

Even so, on January 1^st 2011, it wasn’t only the buses that changed in Tartu. A new carrier, also, sprang into action: AS Sebe. The buses were painted red; drivers thereof donned ironed shirts and neckties. In September, Tartu bus stops developed electronic timetables, supposedly showing in how many minutes the bus is coming. True – the system is still causing some headache.

Rein Haak of Tartu city management said that, definitely, the new buses lifted public transport users more than the Tallinn free rides. «As quality improved, 13.5 per cent increase occurred as compared to 2010; ticket income is up nine percent,» beamed the man.

Tallinn halts free-fall

According to satisfaction-studies, however, Tallinn has a far larger percentage travelling by public transport than Tartu. In the capital, 48 per cent of people rode buses daily in April (40 per cent, on an ordinary day); in Tartu, as measured in May and June questionnaires, the percentage was under 25. The main factor being the compactness of Tartu – the town being much smaller than Tallinn, and the Tartu Centre really being located in its centre (more or less). Meaning: lots of Tartu dwellers walk or ride bikes. 

Notable growth of passengers cannot keep coming from people with less-than-average incomes (choosing between bus-ride and a walk). Considerable growth can only come on account of those choosing whether take the car to work or go by bus.

According to study by Oded Cats, Triin Reimal and Yusak Susilo of Royal Swedish Technology Institute, Tallinn had 3 per cent more in public transportation, this January to April, than year-on-year on 2012 and 2011. Even so, the bulk of the growth was due to the new transport lines (marked BUS) and a tighter schedule. Free ride, as such, only added 1.2 per cent.

As confirmed by scientists, Tallinn currently is the largest city in the world offering free public transport to its inhabitants. As revealed by earlier attempts elsewhere in the world, free rides cause passenger numbers to skyrocket as 10-20 per cent of car-owners switch to buses.

Therefore, the researchers asked: why such low growth, in Tallinn? As an answer, they suggest the ticket price that, in Western-European scale, was small even before. Also, Tallinn already had a large percentage of public-transport-users than other cities testing the free version – therefore, the growth has its limits. Thirdly, the scientists discovered that up to now, Tallinn public transport use had been in decline for twenty years straight – free ride halting the free fall.

Traffic expert and professor at Tallinn Technical University Dago Antov said that, considering the two to four per cent decline in earlier years, the real growth in Tallinn might have been six-seven percent. «Otherwise, this year’s fall could have been three percent; now, three per cent were added,» explained Mr Antov.

As revealed by the Cats, Reimal and Susilo research, the sharpest growth in Tallinn, immediately after free ride was introduced, came in Lasnamäe – by over a tenth. As a trend: the larger the percentage of unemployed and elderly in a district, the greater the growth.

According to Tallinn Transport Department head Andres Harjo, the city measured passenger turnover in first quarter, by use of census buses, and counted the growth at 9.4 per cent. 

«We targeted bus route No 31 and selected comparable data,» explained he. «Census buses are fewer that all departures, therefore the data was accumulated over a longer period – we counted from January to March.»

Mr Harjo begs to differ from the methodology used by Swedish scientists. «Comparing the data, the bus figures coincided; as much as I can remember, the streetcar had a certain trend of increase; but they found that trolley-buses were in decline,» said Mr Harjo. He said the Cats’ study failed to consider the express buses, which some trolley-bus riders switched into.

In 2011, Tallinn earned €17.8m of public transport ticket income; paying €35m in subsidy. Thus, even then the public transportation only earned back a third of the costs.

Mr Harjo admitted that even though Tallinn public transport is undergoing renewal, it is slow. «Every year, a year again is added to the average age of the fleet,» said he.

According to Mr Harjo, free rides is only one of many measures to get people from cars into buses, «trolls» and trams. 

«But these other measures are not much talked about. Such as: in Tallinn, at intersections, a public transport vehicle gets an advantage over cars – it can go earlier. Then, there are the intersections where the systems sense if a bus is behind the schedule: then, the traffic lights will lengthen its green signal or searches for an opportunity for an early green signal.»

According to Mr Harjo, Tallinn also has a real-time functioning public transport system which can be used with computers or smartphones.

Short is in

As assured by Prof Dago Antov, the Tartu passenger turnover is striking. Regarding Tallinn, he says the attempt to lure folks from cars has not been too successful. «Looking at the traffic, it is basically the same.»

According to Mr Antov, buses are probably used more in Tallinn. «Surely, for shorter trips, people hop aboard – as, earlier, they just might have walked,» he added.

Thus, free buses cut the healthy walking – not the environment-polluting private cars.

Also, Mr Antov underlines the quality: «Who wants to change car for a bus packed full of people, with no air and somebody stinking,» said Mr Antov.

Mr Antov said Tallinn had changed lots of buses for new ones and things aren’t too gloomy. «Streetcars... no investments there, for quite a while,» he noted.

According to Tallinna Linnatranspordi AS, over a half of trolley-buses have been changed since 2002. By the end of 2015, the company gets the Spanish CAF trams, 30 percent if Tallinn trams then replaced.

This year, Tallinna Linnatranspordi AS buys 50 new buses, last year’s purchase totalled 25.

In Dago Antov’s estimation, it is quite doubtful if Tallinn will manage to renew its fleet fast enough, providing free rides.

«Will free ride achieve the vital goals?» asked Mr Antov. «Traffic load never eased...»

According to Antov, the public transport BUS-advantages are prudent, basically. He pointed out that Tartu does have an increasing amounts of jam-spots, so BUS-lines might come in handy.