Shock surprises, sudden triumphs and defeats

Photo: SCANPIX

Centre Party repeats 2009 result. IRL improves positions. Reform Party loses votes all across the land. Soc dems, suffering a few devastating defeats, also snatch some sweet deals.

Local elections offer five grand conclusions on politics in Estonia. Let’s start with Centre Party. Roughly, they repeated their result of four years ago. All said, it equals victory in Tallinn and cities of Ida-Viru County, plus some smaller places (like Valga). Even so, it is taking Tallinn that serves to foster their image as the winner.

On the other hand, the Centrist figures also reveal that, in a way, they have reached the ceiling: no more space for growth, in various counties they have fallen to be outsiders. Thus [pursuant to Estonian school results system, 1 to 5 as highest – edit] Centre Party would get a 5 in Tallinn, and 4 for the rest of Estonia (decent, but no advancements, really).

Secondly, Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) clearly raised its stakes. Achieving a clear-cut 2^nd place in Tallinn, they also were No 2 in pan-Estonian context – quite an advancement compared to 2009. So, IRL would get a 5. It remains to be seen, however, how the votes can be converted into concrete council seats.

Thirdly, Social Democratic Party (SDE), this time having its share of victory and defeat. In Tallinn, soc dems were devastated. Mayor candidate Andres Anvelt netting 1,614 votes; the last time, while much less known and written about, the total was 1,195.

All in all, soc dems were supported by 9.9 per cent of Tallinners, only a little better that last time’s 9.8. Catastrophically for them, soc dems totally failed in Lasnamäe, defeated even by IRL and Reform Party – a clear sign that in Tallinn, at least, grabbing Russian-language voters failed.

Regarding Estonia as a whole, soc dems did a step forward: last time supported by 7.5 per cent of voters, this time the percentage was 12.5 along with some sweet victories as best illustrated Kuressaare, in Saaremaa.

The most obvious loser of the elections was Reform Party. Defeated in Tallinn, they also lost positions in the rest of Estonia. Which means not there weren’t any wins. For instance, in Tartu and Haapsalu they took their traditional 1^st places; even so, in the case of Tartu, for the third time running the trend is somewhat in decline.

And, finally, the election coalitions. In Tartu, a whopping two of these made it into the council (Isamaaline Tartu Kodanik and Vabakund). In Tallinn, Vaba Tallinna Kodanik did net four per cent of votes and failed to cross threshold, but basically they did well. The issue now being: what will they do next?

Vote magnets

Always, elections come with some surprising personal results. Some being bona fide shockers, others having worked hard at it.

A star surpriser, no doubt, was world traveller Hannes Hanso, conquering Kuressaare by 978 votes, his clear lead pulling soc dems to a victory and felling the long-time ruler Reform Party.

A bright result was shown, in Narva, by Riigikogu member Yevgeni Ossinovsky. By 36 per cent of votes, soc dems were defeated by Centre Party; still, Mr Ossinovsky rose to be the town’s most popular politician.

In some sense, Narva also offers the second biggest surprise: namely, Riigikogu member Mikhail Stalnukhin – for years showing miraculous results in the border town – this time took a meagre haul of 1,338 votes and was beaten big by Mr Ossinovsky (2,403 votes). Overall victory, of course, went to Centre Party; still, Centrists got 20 per cent less votes than the last time, soc dems forming a strong opposition in Narva.

A sure surprise was served by Anti Allas, head of Võru County government development department, who entered politics in soc dems ranks and immediately achieved best result in Võru town (479), taking his party to close second after Reform Party. 

A rising soc dems star is Rainer Vakra, Riigikogu member running in Nõmme: with 4,236 votes, he showed sixth best result in Tallinn. Without Mr Vakra, formerly of Centre Party, soc dems might have faced total destruction in Tallinn.

In a way, Eerik-Niiles Kross may also be considered a surprise. Sure, he has been much talked about already. Still, by these elections, he rose to national fame and became prominent within his party with close to 7,000 supporters.

Of IRL candidates in Tallinn, excellent results were also achieved by Riigikogu member Liisa-Ly Pakosta and long-time city councillor Tarmo Kruusimäe – both almost doubling their votes from four years ago. Unlike Mr Kross, coming fourth with a big bang, the latter two have worked long and hard in the nitty-gritty of municipal politics.

As a new success, IRL managed to bring into Tallinn politics Yoko Alender, who won Postimees’ online debates and took nearly 2,000 votes in North Tallinn. For contrast: the entire Reform Party list only netted 2,200 votes in that part of town.

In IRL, Ando Kiviberg also performed a mighty rise, with eight times more votes that the last times (from 107 to 809) – by far the most popular politician in Viljandi. His performance nearly matched by mayor of Kärdla, Georg Linkov. 

Surprises were also served by Centre Party. In Kohtla-Järve, for instance, an overwhelming victory went to senior specialist at social care centre Vladimir Evve, personally awarder nearly as many votes (1,346) as the three next candidates put together.

The flops

Finally, a word on the losers. Both Valdo Randpere and Andres Anvelt (Reform and soc dems mayor of Tallinn candidates, respectively), did altogether fail. As did, in Lasnamäe, the SDE chairman Sven Mikser, not even making it into the council.

For SDE, a bitter defeat was served in Tartu: not too long ago they contended for top spot, in polls; ending up fourth, even behind Centre Party. The soc dems will now need to think: do they give their Tartu mayor candidate Heljo Pikhof one more chance or seek for a new leader in Tartu.

Surely, Reform Party is staring mournfully at the figures at Kuressaare – having just lost their long-time bastion. Having also failed in Valga: after 2009 victory they now landed second, the second most popular former mayor Ivar Unt only supported by 90 voters this time around.

In Narva, Mr Stalnukhin definitely flopped with votes three times less than in 2009. What about his European Parliament ambitions, now?

A clear defeat was suffered by Mart Helme and the entire Conservative People’s Party (EKRE).

Ehen it comes to cabinet ministers running in Tallinn, all did a decent result; as compared to four years ago, however, they lost out.

Foreign minister Urmas Paet, justice minister Hanno Pevkur, social minister Taavi Rõivas, economy minister Juhan Parts, interior minister Ken-Marti Vaher – all got less votes than in 2009. With some, direct comparisons will not work as the districts varied; with some, they did not. Generally, it feels, nationally known politicians had less impact at these local elections. In Pärnu, for instance, culture minister Rein Lang settled for 29 votes only.

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Local votes top 50

No    Candidate    Votes    List    Local Govt

1.    Edgar Savisaar    39,979    Centre Party    Tallinn

2.    Jüri Ratas    8,017    Centre Party    Tallinn

3.    Eerik-Niiles Kross    6,897    IRL    Tallinn

4.    Yana Toom    5,328    Centre Party    Tallinn

5.    Mihhail Kõlvart    5,307    Centre Party    Tallinn

6.    Urmas Kruuse    5,292    Reform Party    Tartu city

7.    Rainer Vakra    4,237    SDE    Tallinn

8.    Viktor Vassiljev    4,079    Centre Party    Tallinn

9.    Toomas Kivimägi    3,338    Toomas  Kivimägi VL    Pärnu city

10.    Margus Tsahkna    3,260    IRL    Tartu city

11.    Kadri Simson    2,939    Centre Party    Pärnu city

12.    Mihhail Korb    2,672    Centre Party    Tallinn

13.    Urmas Paet    2,633    Reform Party    Tallinn

14.    Andrei Novikov    2,606    Centre Party    Tallinn

15.    Urmas Reinsalu    2,509    IRL    Tallinn

16.    Olga Ivanova    2,450    Centre Party    Tallinn

17.    Jevgeni Ossinovski    2,403    SDE    Narva city

18.    Valdo Randpere    2,343    Reform Party    Tallinn

19.    Juhan Parts    2,310    IRL    Tallinn

20.    Tarmo Kruusimäe    2,281    IRL    Tallinn

21.    Liisa-Ly Pakosta    2,113    IRL    Tallinn

22.    Ken-Marti Vaher    2,035    IRL    Tallinn

23.    Yoko Alender    1,991    IRL    Tallinn

24.    Sven Mikser    1,951    SDE    Tallinn

25.    Hanno Pevkur    1,759    Reform Party    Tallinn

26.    Heljo Pikhof    1,733    SDE    Tartu city

27.    Andres Anvelt    1,614    SDE    Tallinn

28.    Jürgen Ligi    1,606    Reform Party    Tallinn

29.    Martin Helme    1,596    EKRE    Tallinn

30.    Rein Ratas    1,537    Centre Party    Tallinn

31.    Erki Nool    1,527    IRL    Tallinn

32.    Margarita  Tšernogorova    1,449    Centre Party    Tallinn

33.    Eiki Nestor    1,414    SDE    Tallinn

34.    Taavi Rõivas    1,405    Reform Party    Tallinn

35.    Indrek Saar    1,391    SDE    Tallinn

36.    Mart Nutt    1,352    IRL    Tallinn

37.    Vladimir Evve    1,346    Centre Party    Kohtla-Järve

38.    Mihhail Stalnuhhin    1,338    Centre Party    Narva city

39.    Karin Tammemägi    1,335    Centre Party    Tallinn

40.    Kalev Vapper    1,333    IRL    Tallinn

41.    Aleksandr Tšaplõgin    1,326    Centre Party    Tallinn

42.    Aleksandr Jefimov    1,290    Centre Party    Narva city

43.    Juri Poljakov    1,288    Centre Party    Tallinn

44.    Erki Savisaar    1,273    Centre Party    Tallinn

45.    Igor Kravtšenko    1,270    Centre Party    Tallinn

46.    Marek Jürgenson    1,265    Centre Party    Tallinn

47.    Aadu Must    1,259    Centre Party    Tartu city

48.    Aivar Riisalu    1,208    Centre Party    Tartu city

49.    Keit Pentus-Rosimannus    1,184    Reform Party    Tallinn

50.    Toomas Vitsut    1,181    Centre Party    Tallinn

Local elections’ top 50 by percentage of votes

No    Candidate    % of votes in district  List    District    County

1.    Edgar Savisaar    67.0    Centre Party    Tallinn, district No 4    Harju County

2.    Oleg Kuznetsov    50.5    VL Koduvald Illuka    Illuka commune    Ida-Viru County

3.    Kuno Erkmann    47.9    VL Parem Paikuse    Paikuse commune    Pärnu County

4.    Kalmer Sarv    34.2    VL Koduvald    Õru commune    Valga County

5.    Kalmer Poopuu    33.5    VL Koostöö    Salme commune    Saaremaa

6.    Peep Vassiljev    32.2    VL Üheskoos    Sõmeru commune    Lääne-Viru County

7.    Ervin Tamberg    32.0    IRL    Mõisaküla city    Viljandi County

8.    Kalev Kaljuste    30.8    SDE    Tootsi commune    Pärnu County

9.    Marko Šorin    30.4    Centre Party    Sindi city    Pärnu County

10.    Andres Hanso    30.2    SDE    Pöide commune    Saaremaa

11.    Enel Liin    29.2    VL Koduvald Veriora    Veriora commune    Põlva County

12.    Jaanika Tiitson    27.9    VL Elujõuline Koduvald    Lümanda commune    Saaremaa

13.    Maano Koemets    27.9    VL Rannu    Rannu commune    Tartu County

14.    Filimon Kuznetsov    27.8    VL Kodupaik    Piirissaare commune    Tartu County

15.    Andrea Eiche    27.3    VL Meie Commune    Sonda commune    Ida-Viru County

16.    Heiki Kukk    27.0    single candidate    Ruhnu commune    Saaremaa

17.    Arto Saar    26.7    VL Järva-Jaani Heaks    Järva-Jaani commune    Järva County

18.    Eerik-Niiles Kross    26,5    IRL    Tallinn, district No 2    Harju County

19.    Jüri Morozov    26.5    SDE    Saare commune    Jõgeva County

20.    Jarno Laur    25.9    SDE    Väätsa commune    Järva County

21.    Jaan Aiaots    25.9    SDE    Põltsamaa city    Jõgeva County

22.    Veljo Kingsep    25.8    VL Kodupaik    Mäetaguse commune    Ida-Viru County

23.    Raido Liitmäe    25.7    IRL    Muhu commune    Saaremaa

24.    Andrus Blok    25.5    VL Koduvald Rakke    Rakke commune    Lääne-Viru County

25.    Priit Lomp    25.2    VL Koduvald Haaslava    Haaslava commune    Tartu County

26.    Raimu Aardam    25.2    VL Koduvald    Kihelkonna commune    Saaremaa

27.    Ludvik Mõtlep    24.6    VL Koduvald Leisi    Leisi commune    Saaremaa

28.    Lauri Luur    24.1    VL Ühtne Koduvald    Are commune    Pärnu County

29.    Jozsef Weinrauch    23.8    VL Pala – meie koduvald    Pala commune    Jõgeva County

30.    Aarne Laas    23.8    single candidate    Laekvere commune    Lääne-Viru County

31.    Aivar Aleksejev    23.6    Reform Party    Ülenurme commune    Tartu County

32.    Mart Järvik    23.6    VL Järvakandi kant    Järvakandi commune    Rapla County

33.    Monika Rogenbaum    23.6    IRL    Taheva commune    Valga County

34.    Raivo Raap    23.6    Reform Party    Iisaku commune    Ida-Viru County

35.    Leemet Vaikmaa    23.4    VL Koostöö    Padise commune    Harju County

36.    Jüri Ratas    23.2    Centre Party    Tallinn, district No 5    Harju County

37.    Vilmar Rei    23.1    VL Laimjala    Laimjala commune    Saaremaa

38.    Mihkel Undrest    22.7    VL Sõrulased    Torgu commune    Saaremaa

39.    Etti Kagarov    22.4    SDE    Kohtla commune    Ida-Viru County

40.    Kalevi Kaur    22.4    IRL    Kolga-Jaani commune    Viljandi County

41.    Tarmo Riisk    21.7    VL Koduvald    Kõo commune    Viljandi County

42.    Jaanus Männik    21.6    VL Koostöö    Surju commune    Pärnu County

43.    Tiit Toots    21.6    VL Meie Rõuge    Rõuge commune    Võru County

44.    Elari Hiis    21.6    IRL    Käru commune    Rapla County

45.    Margus Jaanson    21.4    Reform Party    Juuru commune    Rapla County

46.    Ivar Tedrema    21.3    VL Koduvald    Kambja commune    Tartu County

47.    Kalju Kertsmik    21.0    IRL    Albu commune    Järva County

48.    Jüri Mets    20.4    SDE    Tootsi commune    Pärnu County

49.    Toomas Rohu    20.4    VL Tõstamaa    Tõstamaa commune    Pärnu County

50.    Tarmo Tamm    20.4    SDE    Helme commune    Valga County