Forceful campaign by IRL feared to mobilise Centre Party supporters in capital.
Tallinn power at mercy of Russian speaking voter
24th September 2013, 17:42
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In Tallinn, the key issue at threshold of local elections – determining Centre Party success or options for opposition – will be the volume of Russian speakers at ballot boxes on October 20th.
The reason being simple: even with Centre Party being Tallinn’s most popular for quite a while now, they only rose to absolute dominance four years ago, when – all of a sudden – 76,242 new people entered ranks of voters in Estonia’s capital. Whence they came is no rocket science to figure out: all it takes is comparing voter turnout in 2005 and 2009. Finding that, in Lasnamäe, numbers of active voters rose from 34,000 to over 60,000; in North Tallinn, from 17,000 to 28,000; in Õismäe, from 13,000 to 22,000. All told, this swelled Centre Party votes by a half – from 56,000 in 2005 to 114,000 votes in 2009.
Thus, this year also, victory will be determined by whether the Russian speaking voter will be as active as four years ago. Should the answer be yes, the Centre Party will be no mere winner – it will be the absolute winner. Should the Russian speakers’ activity drop, others – IRL, Reform Party and soc dems – could have a chance at forming a coalition.
Voter turnout is very hard to foresee; in Estonia, hardly anyone is involved in predicting that. Aivar Voog, of Emor, says they do not do such prophecy. IRL secretary general Tiit Riisalo says the same: «One does, of course, play the different scenarios in one’s head; but we are no Germany or USA where you can have in-depth analysis. For that, we simply have no resources.»
Every voter matters
So: all there is left is the gut feeling, and everyone goes hard for the very last vote. In other words: the main thing in election campaigns is not putting forth the message and programme – rather, it is bringing one’s voters to ballot boxes. Even Centre Party is pulling out all the stops, no matter it is by far the most popular in Tallinn.
«Just look at how Savisaar spurts from one event to another, having but one message: be sure to come out and vote,» underlines Vadim Belobrovtsev of soc dems, specialised in Russian language media space. Also, he points out that Centre Party is not merely contending for first place, rather to take the 50 per cent or more – for the sake of absolute majority.
«Looking at their current campaign in Tallinn, we see how the city’s administrative resources have been utilised by a single party. Should they be deprived of these resources, should they lose absolute majority or be left in the opposition, the blow could be rather mortal for them,» says Mr Belobrovtsev.
At the moment, two names and two parties clearly stand out in Tallinn, these being Eerik-Niiles Kross / IRL and Edgar Savisaar / Centre Party. Sure, the campaign waged by Mr Kross may be criticised as travesty, perhaps (the opponents having swallowed their share of sour grapes), but the lethargy of «why try as Centre Party wins anyway» has definitely been shattered.
As a peculiar paradox, as also admitted by Mr Riisalo, a side effect to attacks by Mr Kross may be enhanced mobilisation of Mr Savisaar’s supporters – our guys are being attacked, let’s come out. «We still hope it will mostly activate our own voters and, indirectly, those of soc dems and Reform Party as well,» adds Mr Riisalo.
In the last Emor poll – the same that revealed hikes in both Centre Party and IRL popularity – the couple of percent gained by Centre Party came from Russian speakers. At the same time, soc dems lost out among Russian speakers, by a couple of percent.
A range of reasons might be discussed; even so, Mr Voog of Emor warns that not long-term conclusions should be drawn from fluctuations of a few per cent, either way. «As a rule, when Centre Party goes up, from 80 per cent to 85, soc dems correspondingly drop from 15 to 10 per cent among Russian speaking voters. However, this happens all the time,» says Mr Voog.
Greatest hopes for a low turnout of Russian voters are naturally harboured by IRL and Reform Party. It is presumed that 2009 was an exception, with Bronze Night memories still fresh and the elections posing the first opportunity for the Russian people to vote their mind. Possibly, with many years having passed and memories fading, Mr Savisaar will not be able to repeat the super-result.
Voters polarised
But, again – these are all mere speculation. No research nor analysis to back it up, whatsoever. Clearly, the Tallinn voters are highly polarised. Centre Party leads in Lasnamäe, Õismäe, Mustamäe and North Tallinn. Reform Party, with IRL at its heels, are doing battle over Pirita and Nõmme. With city centre, things are somewhat more undecided.
The only difference being: four years back, for instance, Centre Party took Lasnamäe with 44,602 votes (i.e. 77 per cent), while Reform Party pocketed Nõmme with 7,339 votes only (35.4 per cent of votes cast). Projecting these proportions over the city in its entirety, it becomes crystal clear what taking Tallinn is all about – and why activity or passivity of the Russian speaking voter is what does decide the October 20th issue.