While according to a flash estimate by Statistics Estonia the gross domestic product (GDP) of Estonia in the first quarter of 2013 grew 1 percent compared with the same three-month period a year ago, analysts at the country's major banks expect this figure to be revised upwards by a couple of percentage points.
Ruta Arumäe, analyst with SEB Pank, said the growth rate after revision could be from 1.3 to 1.5 percent.
"Although experience shows that revised figures don't differ from the flash estimate a lot, the setback in the economy in the first quarter was surprisingly big," Arumäe said in her comments to BNS.
Heido Vitsur, analyst at LHV, said the statistical office was likely to revise the figure upwards by 0.1-0.2 points so that the eventual growth rate would be 1.1-1.2 percent.
The chief economist at Swedbank, Tõnu Mertsina, said the GDP growth rate for the first quarter was likely to be higher than the figure published in the flash estimate, probably in the region of 1.5 percent.
"Even though the increase in producer and construction prices has gradually accelerated, consumer prices and export and import prices are moving in the opposite direction. Therefore, the price growth of the total economy put forward in the flash estimate is either too fast or that of the fourth quarter of last year too small," Mertsina said. "A change in the growth rate of the deflator has a direct effect on real growth of GDP."
Economic analyst Maris Lauri manwhile expects the revised figure to remain close to the flash estimate, in the area of 1 percent.
"There are two main reasons behind the relatively weak outcome. First, relatively weak export caused by economic problems in Europe and decelerating economic growth elsewhere in the world," Lauri said. The second reason is a drop in construction volumes after the completion of renovation works carried out for carbon quota money.
In the final quarter of last year Estonia's GDP grew 3.7 percent year on year, Statistics Estonia has said.
According to Statistics Estonia, the main factors driving economic growth in the first quarter were increased value added in information and communications, commerce and manufacturing. The increase in commerce was supported by growth in retail sales.
Statistics Estonia is scheduled to publish the revised GDP figure next week.