Editorial: double the outflow

Illustration: Allikas: statistikaamet, rahvastikuregister

In the wake of the Census, Estonia has reason to be pleased: even though the population has declined, compared to the previous count, it is not as bad as with Latvia and Lithuania. The entire Baltic trio continuing as an «outflow area», Estonia still managed to position itself on the verge of the Nordic situation. Finland, Sweden and Norway also showing a negative migration balance: more departures that arrivals.

The population register data, published yesterday, are worrisome. In 2012, outflows have almost doubled as compared to the year before. True, the number of those returning rose as well, but negative balance still amounted to over 6,000 people – more than in any other year of the past decade.

For the time being, we can only speculate about the reasons, for no one is able to explain a sharp jump like that. Maybe its herd instinct: because of examples set by others, it is easier to leave than to stay. Partly, the cause may be that leaving is enhanced by a critical mass of those that have led the way: it is easier to go as the forerunners are there to help find work and provide a sense of community.

It can also be demographics. With all countries, statistics show that the chief travellers are 20-35 years old. Having experienced the baby boom of the 80ies, the kids have now come of that age, this explaining the rise in the numbers.

And maybe it is the economy, linked to the aftermath of the crisis. The crisis was survived with the hopes of things easing up and getting better, soon. That the cut salaries will start increasing, that the redundant jobs will be replaced with fresh ones. And just whet the talk was about the crisis ending, disappointment hit: no significant wage rise has occurred, lives have not improved. Just as psychologists count not winter the most complex time of the year – rather spring, with its hopes for the new beginning which probably will not come, he initial post-crisis years may prove difficult. The hopes were high, but they may not be fulfilled.

The economic factors are weighty, as underlined by the fact that in the boom years’ migration statistics: exodus went into significant decline, many started to return.

And finally: it could be the last year’s critical attitudes towards the coalition parties, the demonstrations and strikes.

However, none of the above serves to explain such a rapid rise of outflow in a single year. The actual reasons need to be found out, for should such emigration continue, there is cause for alarm.