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Don’t put away your skis, yet. Even though calendar shows spring and, on April 1st, cattle was supposed to be released to pastures, late winter still reigns. With not a trace of early spring.
Late winter to reign on for weeks
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«Early spring’s when average 24 hour temperature stays slightly above zero [Celsius] and the snow is all gone,» explained climatologist Ain Kallis. «It’s spring when 24 hour average stays above 5 Co. Right now, we have what they call late winter, early spring has not yet begun.»
Even Emajõgi River, overflowing Tartu streets on April 3rd 2010, is quite low. Yesterday afternoon, its Tartu water level was a mere 74 centimetres above zero on the Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (EMHI) sounding pole.
«Oh, we still do have river enough, and the water will keep getting lower,» assured an EMHI hydrologist Ene Randpuu. «Emajõgi is now at its usual lowest winter level, followed by springtime high water.»
May snow no miracle
And why be surprised, as March, finally ending on Sunday, was quite tough with its weather.
«This March was colder than February, the entire month offered stable frost,» said Ain Kallis. As a rule, the Tartu March temperature i.e. the 1971-2000 long term average is minus 1.7 Co, but this year it was minus 7.
But then, cold Marches and snowy Aprils are not really all that miraculous for Estonia. According to Ain Kallis, 1920ies, for instance, had many such Aprils – with snow all the way through. Even in 2001 and 2002, snow was quite thick on April 12th.
Even Mays have had their share of the «skiers’ joy»: on May 25th 1975, 10 centimetres of snow fell all over Estonia, with tulips and lilacs blooming. On May 10th 1999, electrical wires collapsed under snow, halting close to 1,500 substations.
The latest snowfall was registered by Tõravere meteorologists in 1981 – on June 10th.
The EMHI April weather forecast paints no rosy picture – before its last third.
«No early potato planting this year, on Jüripäev (April 23rd),» said Ain Kallis. «April is indeed full of change, capricious, anything may happen. But considering that the sea is not under heavy ice this year, spring may come speedily.»
Hydrologists are not ready for high water, yet. For a week, at least, Emajõgi River will stay stable.
«During the day, we have some water flowing in the streets, but that doesn’t mean much,» explains Ene Randpuu. «In rivers and lakes water only rises when night-time temperatures rise above zero. Then, the melting water reaches ditches, and from there – to rivers.»
Warmth brings high water
On the final day of March, the EMHI snow chart revealed that in Jõgeva, snow had increased. «That snow will make much water. When warm weather hits, nothing is excluded,» said Ene Randpuu.
In close of winter, 1953, Emajõgi was very low, with only 40 centimetres above the sounding pole zero. But at the peak of that year’s high water – on April 9th – the river hit 315 cm above zero, in Tartu.