Demographics pushing crime numbers down in Estonia

Photo: Sakala/Scanpix

Just like high schools have to be closed all over Estonia because of smaller student numbers and universities are hit by a drop in enrolments, on the other end of the social scale also crime numbers are to inevitably move lower in the coming years as a result of the decreasing number of young males, Postimees said.

"In the coming few years crime numbers will decline steeply in Estonia," the director of the criminal police, Raigo Haabu, said. This, according to Haabu, is not a result of new technologies or investigation tactics but demographics – or of the rapid decline that is about to happen in the number of young men in Estonia in the next few years.

Jüri Saar, professor of criminology at the University of Tartu, agreed: "This is a basic truth in criminology. First, 90 percent of crimes are committed by men, and second, predominantly by young men," he told the newspaper.

Population figures show that if in 1990 the number of boys born in Estonia was 12,500 then in 1998 it dropped to a low of 6,300, meaning that much smaller generations are entering adulthood now. This promises good times for Estonia as far as public safety is concerned, Postimees said.

As a matter of fact, the first indicators of the change are official already. In 2011, the latest year on which there's complete statistics, the number of thefts, robberies and other offenses against property declined by 20 percent or 5,500 cases compared to the preceding year. That is a very big decline, especially when considering that in the years before it theft numbers moved up somewhat.

Four specialists at the analysis department of the criminal police – Riin Paabo, Merli Klein, Maiu Poldar and Marilis Sepp – have completed a study for the needs of the police titled "Crimes against property 2011 and possible reasons for their decline." The study brings out multiple factors, ranging from the shift of focus by the police to increasingly tackle sellers and mediators or stolen goods to the effect from smaller unemployment.

"Generally, crime is a complex phenomenon, meaning that there's always a considerably bigger number of factors involved," Marilis Sepp, the head of the analysis department, said. Yet demographics also was the most evident among the reasons brought out by her.

For instance, the top gender-age segment of thieves in Estonia is men aged 17–20. If earlier the absolute top was men aged 17–19, then two years ago it shifted to men aged 18–20. Also the average age of all thieves caught during the year has climbed from 27 to 29 years during a few years, suggesting again that there are simply fewer young people embarking on the path of theft.