The power trio and its triple crisis

Argo Ideon
, poliitika- ja majandusanalüütik
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Photo: Liis Treimann / Postimees

Yesterday, they approved tax package and budget strategy in the government. Based on that, coalition talks might be called conclusive – at long last. Even so, the political peace is not everlastingly here, as two more gauntlets remain to be run in May and June. And all three have a unique internal crisis to manage.

The worst must be over between Reform, IRL and especially the Soc Dems. Whatever was loosely penned in their power treaty has now been translated into the language of financial realities. All snatched something.

Reform may inform us that from labour taxes we have moved (are moving) toward taxation of harmful consumption; budget balance principles have not been violated; criticism has been taken into account – for instance, fuel excise rise has partly been replaced by faster boosting of alcohol and tobacco excise. Income tax is shrinking, again.

The soc dems may say that child benefits are rising, accommodation establishments’ VAT rise has been softened thanks to the toughness of their minister, and the soc dem voter has not been forgotten.

IRL may tell the story of the low-paid people’s tax refund – and this is what finance minister Sven Sester is doing in great detail –, as their initial wage poverty fighting tax scheme did not click at talks. So this is not what Juhan Parts was showing with an egg box, but doubtless this is a solution better than nothing. 

For a person whose gross salary is €480, the day in 2017 when close to €700 is transferred to him as refund is surely very important. And, the refund touches over 100,000 people in Estonia. It would be an unpardonable communication flop indeed if a party that did badly at elections failed to show this of as a victory.

The trouble for the government and firstly for prime Minister Taavi Rõivas is that the solution spelled out yesterday was shaped in an atmosphere of public nagging leaving the impression of a broader leadership problem and hoisted a question mark over the coalition’s ability to survive somewhat longer than short-term. At that, Reform has encountered the «older brother» crisis where all that is done or left undone will automatically be counted as a failure by squirrels.

When Mr Rõivas was being criticized for going over the usual month with coalition talks, to a degree this may have been parried by the elections result which flung six parties into parliament instead of the familiar four.   

But hardly had the ink of the signatures dried, when it surfaced that the talks were far from completed. In reality, it was only yesterday that things were settled, along with a unanimous confirmation of governmental documents.

But that ain’t all. As all coalition parties are facing immediate elections of leaders, all will have to «sell» yesterday’s achievement among comrades. Yesterday was most critical for Prime Minister Mr Rõivas whose leadership abilities have since the election performed a decisive drop in eyes of electorate.

Probably, they can breathe easy now and on Sunday, in Tartu, the Reform Party general assembly will serve no surprises.  

Regarding the Soc Dems Sven Mikser / Jevgeni Ossinovski choice, yesterday was rather a win for those who stand with the former – he being the one calling for stability, sticking to coalition agreement, and staying in the government.

But then again, they did lose four seats at these elections. Perhaps Mr Mikser may make fellow soc dems believe he played it out his best in government.

With the inner soc dem struggles, this is the typical «youngest brother» crisis with constant shuffling between staying peacefully in the boat and active self-promoting. This may result in self-jettison.

With 15 seats in parliament, one may be a nobody – or an influential partner in government. Meanwhile, for overmuch stability the «younger brother» may be punished by its voter who isn’t interested in a poodle whose leach is held by a squirrel.

Mr Ossinovski would have been better off in a situation where the party was totally cornered in the coalition, trouble brewing mightily and Mr Mikser’s direction thus unrealistic.

But it doesn’t take much to put up a fight in the coalition and Mr Ossinovski’s supporters have a week to arrange that.

IRL’s inner crisis is essentially that of a loser. Of the major parties, their election results were the worst, the fall hardest and the bleeding of support the most obvious. For IRL, it is acutely urgent to reinvent itself and the aspirants abound to do that.

With former central bank chairman Jaan Männik, a black horse hath appeared. The man is raising popular topics, but for IRL rank and file he is an outsider and one who promised to found a new party which is nowhere to be seen.

Presumably, it is the social topics guy Margus Tsahkna who holds the cards, backed by lion’s share of IRL’s well-known politicians. His programme-article in Postimees became somewhat polemic as it was considered rather introspective as opposed to the «open nationalism» once proclaimed by Mart Laar.

But Mr Tsahkna must be mindful of the main supporters – a part of whom moved over to EKRE at the elections, the latter’s messages being simpler and more understandable. As the loudly liberal-minded Eerik-Niiles Kross and Yoko Alender jumped ship even before elections, the conservative shift of IRL is to be expected.

As all three parties-in-government get their leadership settled, the tax-package will have to be passed in parliament. The debates will probably happen in June and as it heats up, many a coalition MP may feel like putting up a personal show.

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