Fresh February poll by TNS Emor reveals Centre and Reform Parties in tight race for victory with soc dems not too far behind.
Editorial: electorate undergoes general mobilisation
20th February 2015, 14:51
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As we well remember, a Turu-Uuringute AS poll published a week and half ago found Centre leading with 26 percent against Reform’s 22. Then trailed the soc dems and IRL with 16 and 15 percent, respectively. As Centre Party rejoiced, Reform took its opportunity to mobilise potential voters.
The two polls cannot be directly compared, but Emor shows a much closer struggle mid-February (11th to 18th). The numbers: Reform 23 percent, Centre 22 percent. Meaning both stand a good chance to be the one summonsed by President Toomas Hendrik Ilves to Kadriorg, in two weeks, proposed to form Estonia’s next government. The soc dems (20 percent) are not hopelessly behind either.
Whether it’ll be Edgar Savisaar or Taavi Rõivas going for the first try will probably be decided by who succeeds better at engaging their voters – today’s leading coalition partner or the opposition party towering in Tallinn. Thus, though weary from campaigning, politicians will not relax till the last minute. One can almost hear the brains crackling in party headquarters – what will be our final triumphant finishing line trick?
According to all latest polls, IRL will be the fourth. When it all comes down to picking definite candidates, though, IRL may catch up – their lists of candidates are far from weak.
Highly likely, according to this latest Emor poll also, that the parliament will no longer be composed of four, but of five or six parties. Free Party and EKRE alike have nine percent support in February. Whoever wins the elections, two small parties added would spell significant change for Estonian politics – the coalition deck of cards will be shaken quite strong.
In its direct and web interviews this time, Emor also asked questions based on ratified lists of candidates. Turns out, the results are very much the same.