The massive propaganda has already done its job: economic crisis and price rise alone aren’t enough to make the average Russian doubt the Putin/Kremlin policy, much less protest against it, says a leading expert on life in Russia’s regions, Professor Natalya Zubarevich (60).
«This is the question nobody is able to answer – how long will this mobilising propaganda last, that all around are only enemies. Thus far, it is still effective,» she admits.
We are talking about how the deepening economic recession might affect the mood in Russian regions.
All is clear regarding Moscow and the other major cities in Russia. Despite the mild currency and sales panic, a wave of protests to the tune of winter 2011/2012 is now not to be expected. The more intelligent and liberal public in Moscow, those that gathered to the largest Putin era protests, are at the moment glaringly demoralised.
«They are either still thinking that «Crimea is Ours!», or have realised we are now in a flow where nothing can be done,» Prof Zubarevich, who visited Estonia at the end of November, readily agrees.
As for me, however, I want to find out from the Moscow State University economic geography professor, if perhaps there is protest potential in the regions similar to the great crisis of 2009 with the town Pikalyovo, in Leningrad Oblast, as a bright example where people without salaries for months closed down the St Petersburg–Vologda Highway. To solve the crisis, Vladimir Putin – temporarily the Prime Minister – arrived on the scene. At that time, spontaneous protests like that happened all over Russia, mainly in monocities.
Cheaper gulps of coffee
Me and Ms Zubarevich are seated in a cafe, rather close to Moscow city centre, and are sipping a cappuccino costing 210 roubles. In mid-May, as the cafe-chain Šokoladnitsa set its new prices, this felt quite a fancy price to a European. According to the rate at the time, a cup of cappuccino set you back €4.4!
At that, this is a mid-level price-class cafe. The way the exchange rates go, today I pay mere €2.6 for the cup. That’s the drop over half a year. And the rouble is sure to keep on falling.
Meanwhile, inhabitants of Russia do remember times much worse, in recent history. In 1998, in half a year, the rouble cheapened towards the dollar by a whopping three and half times. Now, it is 1.5 times down towards the dollar over these past three weeks, and twice as compared to the start of the year.
A major difference being, of course, that back in 1998 no-one was promising any stability to the inhabitants of Russia, nor did they try to convince them of how wonderful the cheapening rouble actually is as the state coffers get more roubles selling petrodollars.
«I wrote in the spring that if, in the fall and in the winter, people will start sensing economic problems, they will start thinking,» says Ms Zubarevich. «Well they do sense economic problems already, but it seems they have not started to think yet.»
The professor is not really predicting the «pot and pan marches» – this is the name, in Russia, for protest meetings with social demands raised. «For the common people to come out to the streets, the situation needs to sharply deteriorate, something extreme needs to happen,» she says. «A «pots and pans march» may only happen where the local authorities are extremely stupid.»
For Ms Zubarevich, rapid fall of the rouble is no such extreme, as the vast majority in the regions just don’t come into contact with foreign currency too much, and they never travel abroad; also, they do not have savings to worry about. As long as prices aren’t rising in the same breathtaking tempo as rouble’s rate regarding the dollar, for the authorities – having doused the nation in propaganda – all is fine.
«In the major cities, prices are rising faster than elsewhere at the moment; but, then, in smaller towns and in the countryside, people are much more price-sensitive,» says Ms Zubarevich.
For the time being, the Kremlin may rejoice that, in the regions, unemployment rise is not felt yet. That will happen next year, predicts the professor.
Public post no panacea
To fight growing unemployment, now the Kremlin clearly has less money than during the 2008/2009 crisis. Meanwhile, the powers are also wiser to avoid situations like the famed Pikalyovo incident. Experts agree that in the current situation, big business needs to be much more careful with lay-offs than five years ago.
«Did you hear anything about how Mr Deripaska essentially halted the work of his plants in several cities?» asks Ms Zubarevich.
Oleg Deripaska is among the richest men in Russia, and owner of many aluminium plants. Also, he owned plants in the famed Pikalyovo.
I’m having to admit that I did hear some news snippets about the Mr Deripaska plants, but I really have detected no major resonance to that in the media.
«Because it was done very carefully. No longer do they halt the entire plant, but just some single departments which are making most of the loss,» relates Ms Zubarevich. «No-one is laid off at once, but it is being done step by step, paying large compensations and trying to provide them work elsewhere in the company.»
In a word, the Kremlin has taught the mega business the new rules of the game. Those unwilling to agree with authorities regarding unemployment-control will have Prosecutor’s Office drop by.
The well-known economic geographer would, however, point out another problem the central powers may bump into: the feeling of stability lost in the vast part of population employed by state and local government agencies.
«Everybody used to think that a public office – made no difference whether in a major city or some rural region – is the best post of all, as even in crisis times life is good there,» she says. «It’s no longer like that as, visibly, costs are being cut to public servants and their wages are no longer rising.»
According to Ms Zubarevich, in certain public sectors the jobs are even being thinned out, first and foremost in hospitals and schools. The reason being: attempts at reforms happened to coincide with the economic crisis.
«In small towns and the countryside this is a problem, as there it is difficult to find other employment having been laid off from the public sector,» says the scientist. In major cities, finding a job is not a problem yet, but one must be content with a smaller salary.
Full circle, we come back to how all protests in Russia are also being held back by the crafty information policy by authorities. «In the regions, people don’t know much at all about any crisis, as very little is being said about it over the TV,» claims the professor. «For our TV news, Ukraine and a black youth killed in the USA are much more important. In the regions, people will understand a crisis by the prices, not the news.»
The unpredictable future
According to Prof Zubarevich, the Kremlin propaganda has successfully and fully activated the stereotypes in the head of an average Russian. ««We are good, but no-one loves us». «All the time we want to help others, but all they do is deceive us». «For being such a great and mighty nation, the West wants to get us on our knees»,» she lists the stereotypes.
«The effect of this propaganda is very long-term. At the moment, I can’t imagine how the brains of people in Russia could be washed clean, or begun to be washed clean. With an economic crisis alone, this way of thinking isn’t cured.»
When it comes to predictions, the professor says these are not worth the trouble as everything is too unclear right now.
«You know what, actually, is awaiting most people in Russia?» Ms Zubarevich asks, as we wind up the talk. And answers: «Massive apathy and tedium. We will see a massive return to the strategy of the 1990ies where every person, every family is just doing their best to survive, on their own. We will see disintegration of the society, deep moral depression.»