Relentlessly, Russia keeps stirring tensions at Ukrainian border. Troops are being marshalled in the name of excursuses, next to Eastern border of the neighbour. In Transnistria, located on Moldovan territory, Russian forces have been put in battle array.
Crimea, a part of Ukraine, has been controlled by Russian troops for weeks now. Russia keeps sending extra forces and the local Ukrainian units are surrounded. Is this mere flexing of the muscle, before the illegitimate Sunday referendum in Crimea – or preparations to invade Eastern Ukraine?
Admiral Ihor Kabanenko, forced into retirement by President Yanukovych, has presented an analysis showing that Russia is gearing up to enter Ukraine. That’ll take place following Crimean referendum. Admiral Kabanenko draws the conclusion (based on movements of Russian troops and nature of the exercises) that Russia aims at occupying, within a week or so, Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine up to the Lugansk-Donetsk-Nikolajev-Odessa-Tiraspol arc, to cut Ukraine off of Black Sea and to impose new borders.
That things are serious and not necessarily limited to exercises near borders, is confirmed by activities of Russian military intelligence on Ukrainian territory. The last night but one, Ukrainian security service arrested, in Herson Oblast, a Russian military intelligence group which had entered there from Crimea. During this week, Russian military spies have also been arrested elsewhere in Ukraine.
On the other hand, it has dawned upon the international community that it can no longer proceed without sanctioning Russia. The day before yesterday, an US senate committee approved a bill regarding Ukraine, about both sanctions and ways to aid Ukraine’s economy. Even Europe now understands that it cannot avoid sanctions, Russia having spurned calls to talk. Paths are closed before observers sent to Crimea; instead of seeking peaceful solutions, the Kremlin continues marshalling troops to Ukrainian border. The day before yesterday, the need for sanctions was confirmed before parliament by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. EU foreign ministers will gather to discuss sanctions, on Monday.
As opposed to cold war era, economic relations of free world and Russia are much more intertwined. Due to sanctions, European and US economies stand to suffer as well; as Russia hits back, problems will plague those with assets based in Russia. In the big picture, however, it is Russia rather than the west that needs the economic ties. Should harsh sanctions be imposed, Russian economy will be damaged to such a degree as to endanger the Putin Regime. Let us hope the threat will serve to prevent advance of his troops.