From the recent tone of the Estonian-Latvian-Lithuanian talks regarding the Rail Baltic joint company, one does get the impression that the latter doesn’t actually want the railway at all. In a veiled way, this is also what Kaido Simmerman – former Estonian Railways’ head and now chief engineer at Latvian Railways – said when in Tallinn on Tuesday: while Estonia and Latvia sit in the same boat regarding the project, Lithuania takes the totally opposite stand in almost all aspects.
Yesterday and today, Kaunas hosts another three-state get-together of delegations. Among other things, they are discussing a fresh requirement by Lithuania: Rail Baltic will have to pass through Vilnius. In the beginning, the Lithuanians showed no interest towards having the trains travel through Vilnius; therefore, a version like this was never proposed. The course was supposed to go via Kaunas. Now, as Vilnius is thrown into the game, this feels like another pretext to delay the creation of joint company.
Examples of Lithuanian countermoves would abound. Like: their law would not allow creation of the joint company. Then, they endlessly debated the wording and, afterwards, the interpretation thereof. Or: the head of the company ought to be appointed by the Lithuanian prime minister.
On these issues, the Estonians and Latvians in the know would rather not comment too much. As a reason for reluctance to speak out, they claim the Lithuanians would then get another cause to complain.
The chief reason for the stalemate is: the Lithuanian government actually does not want Rail Baltic at all. The previous one did, but this government does not – this is the only reasonable explanation, informed sources tell Postimees. The current Lithuanian government, and the transport minister in particular, are much more interested in the business interests of Lithuanian Railways (or, rather, are actually dependent on these). For Lithuanian Railways, however, what matters most are the East-West trade route and the Kaunas logistics centre next to it. From the windows of the Lithuanian Railways office, the North-South Rail Baltic looks like a bothersome competitor.
This gives Lithuanians cause to delay, come up with new demands, hinder the process, beat about the bush or tell outright lies. In other words: the Lithuanians are lying; the Estonians and Latvians know the Lithuanians are lying; the Lithuanians know that the Estonians and Latvians know... So the talks keep stalling.
On Tuesday, the Lithuanian Seimas passed a new resolution requiring the government to assess economic feasibility and financial needs of Rail Baltic. Among other things, the resolution got an additional clause: the railway must go via Vilnius. Comments by parliament members don’t always sound... convincing. For instance: Seimas member Jurgis Razma announced that there would be no need for Rail Baltic when, on the Polish section, the speed remains at 60 km/h (37 mph). This is an intentional lie, as Poland has promised speeds up to 160 km/h (100 mph) on the section leading to Lithuanian border.
Some think that the Lithuanians are pulling big wool over EU eyes, asking money for Rail Baltic, yet using it for building Lithuanian domestic East-West Kaunas or/and Vilnius railway.
Some have hinted at the Ignalina nuclear station – in return for Rail Baltic cooperation, Estonia and Latvia might again enter the Ignalina project. Ignalina is quite a Rail Baltic type endeavour, having also kicked off, a few years ago, with exuberant enthusiasm. Right now, for Estonia the Ignalina nuclear station is a dead thing. In this project also, Lithuanian inability to overcome internal differences proved fatal.
Currently, Estonia and Latvia, indirectly also Finland and Poland, are optimistic regarding the railway; Latvia, however, 2014 brings parliamentary elections – thus, political power lines may change.
Latvian government is supportive of Rail Baltic; even so, as pointed out by Kaido Simmerman, Latvia does have its local oil oligarchs whose business interests are rather linked with the East. Should they come to power after the elections, or even get closer to it, controversies may appear in Latvia as well.
As for Estonia, we have nothing to convince Lithuania with. All we can do is harp on the old arguments: officially, Lithuania’s government has supported Rail Baltic, delay might mean missing the EU money.