This weekend, Reform Party gathers for its council with 18 per cent support – lowest of all in Riigikogu. Whether they acknowledge it or not, a larger part of the rest of Estonia understands that the scandal culminating around Sirp is not merely a culture newspaper issue. Rather, these are the aftershocks of Ice Cellar Initiative of exactly a year ago, of the continued dissatisfaction with the arrogant style of leadership, now specifically of culture minister Rein Lang.
This no longer is an issue of a weekly paper; rather, this is an issue of values characteristic of a party, also criticised by artistic associations. There has never been much love lost between the two power parties, Reform Party and IRL. The chairmen of the parties, Andrus Ansip and Urmas Reinsalu will not regularly sit down to discuss things; cabinet sessions are endured as a drab duty.
Pevkur the Favourite
With finance minister Jürgen Ligi admitting that, during the 2014 budget discussions, the coalition came to the brink of collapse, the danger is far from over in the light of a TNS Emor poll ordered by Public Broadcasting – on the parties’ popularity. Rather, the danger has intensified, and it would be a miracle of sorts if the two would continue till the Riigikogu elections of March 2015. Right now, the focus is on getting the budget approved; even so, the upcoming European Parliament elections equal fresh challenges for the government.
In reality, they are tired of both governing and of each other; strangely, however, Prime Minister Ansip has fallen hostage to his own term in power and future options are not too abundant. The most logical step, for him, would be becoming and European commissioner; nevertheless, it cannot be taken for granted that the likeliest recent candidate for party leadership, justice minister Hanno Pevkur, would be able to take Reform Party to a new rise in popularity.
More important that the future of Mr Ansip, however, is the power coalition’s inner willingness and strength to continue – ideas have run out. They do realise the need for something to change, it being impossible to continue with the same bunch of people to lead the nation sick of the current coalition.
Today, soc dems will likely express no confidence towards Mr Lang; meanwhile, among themselves they have admitted that their announcement, yesterday, may have been overly hasty, as the week to come will be sittings-free at Riigikogu and would allow the opposition to keep the culture minister issue up, developing it further.
Now, Riigikogu voting over the no-confidence-move today (Thursday), it will probably fail and the topic die down.
Prime Minister Mr Ansip, freefalling in popularity polls, has weighty decisions to take; to Postimees’ knowledge, the squirrels’ party has weighed various options. Should they give up Mr Lang, replacing him with Kaja Kallas, for instance (in public eyes, the very embodiment of popularity) – where’s the guarantee that Finance minister Jürgen Ligi (in nightmares of the party, the embodiment of unpopularity) will not be the next in line? How, with all this going on, will the Prime Minister save his face?
A couple of weeks ago, Reform Party attacked its coalition partner via Eerik-Niiles Kross, the Prime Minister shooting arrows at three more IRL ministers.
Back then, it all remained mere doubts: even so, a guy still under fire is economy minister Juhan Parts, whose path as a minister is quite a minefield: railway and Rail Baltica, Saaremaa ferryboats, Estonian Air, Port of Tallinn, and disputes with Estonian Olympic Committee chief Neinar Seli who declared it was time for Mr parts to take responsibility. IRL understands not the logic, as responsibility for sports support ought to lie on shoulders of culture minister Mr Lang.
Parts attacked
It is boiling in Reform Party, it is boiling in governing coalition. Still, all power politicians talking to Postimees yesterday agreed: this year, the coalition will not break. Reform Party has reprimanded IRL, that, with help by them, the media and soc dems, Centre Party is helped to take the reins.
This can be taken two ways: either Centre Party will gain good results at next general elections, of a coalition partner will be replaced earlier than that. Beholding the all-night sittings of late arranged by soc dems, Centre party has been unusually subdued in its criticism of coalition policy. Even so, a new Centre-Reform union would surely not serve to raise the Reform Party rating...
This morning, the IRL parliamentary faction gathered, listening to explanations by Mr Lang before passing a decision. To get the no confidence deal through, 51 MPs must vote yes. The opposing Centre Party has 21, soc dems 19 and democratic union five votes. The IRL faction has 23 and Reform 33 votes.