Editorial: Estonia’s security in Swedish hands (also)

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Global tensions dominated by Middle-East, splashed like instant waves over the planet by international media, should bring security issues into every mind and heart. Sadly, a peaceful tomorrow is not a given; especially when not prepared for today. Therefore, we must try our best and keep a watchful eye on world developments – particularly with nearest neighbours.

Lately, a lot has been said about Sweden’s increasing weakness when it comes to defence. At the same time, observers are convinced that it is that very Sweden that is a key stability/security figure for countries around the Baltic Sea. Last year, it was admitted by Sweden’s defence forces chief Sverker Göranson that, on its own, the country could only defend itself for a week. This summer, former Swedish national defence college head Karlis Neretnieks penned a critical article on the US think-tank Stratfor website, stating that should a Baltics-centred conflict spark between Russia and NATO, Sweden could not keep neutrality. In a fresh interview to Postimees, Mr Neretnieks says Sweden has promised to assist Baltics by military means – not possessing these, in reality.

The seriousness of the above threat may be debated; even so, as acknowledged by the Finnish columnist and foreign policy expert Jarmo Mäkelä in Postimees week-end opinion/cultural AK, this Saturday: the darkest of scenarios should also be considered. It is quite natural, therefore, that issues of military capabilities and security are increasingly upfront in Swedish society. As Tweeted, this week, by Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt: in near future, the kingdom intends to increase defence expenditure, step by step. How that would be done, which would be the needed reforms in defence forces – that will be another matter.

The Baltics have banked on integration and collective defence. Sweden, however, belongs not in NATO. Joining the alliance would be an option – welcome from our point of view, as NATO could, in its Baltic defence strategies, use a geographical location a lot closer than Poland. For Sweden, NATO would be a gain in many respects; the possible benefits both political and economic – thinking, for instance, about the options to advance the interests of its defence industry, via the alliance. 

With no rapid developments to be expected – a pivotal decision like this, to the background of the historic neutrality, would take a deep debate in the Swedish society – the discussions are obviously on the roll. With ever increasing openness, the Finns as well are discussing the NATO options. Having developed pointedly independent defence capabilities, the Finns have forged many a tie with the alliance such as cooperation with arms systems. Even so, it is definitely a landmark that the topic was taken up, this year, at Finnish opinion leaders’ get-together at the presidential summer residence in Kultaranta. An example set by Swedes, however, would stir up some mighty fresh winds amongst our Northern neighbours.

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