Editorial: politics of disappointment

Photo: Urmas Nemvalts

New party taking its time to emerge.

Ever since Silvergate, at least, fresh forces have been anticipated to arise in Estonian politics. «At least», as part of the electorate is almost ever ready for anything else except what exists. The only issue being the amount of the expectant.

Right now, the expectant crowd feels over the average, in size. As evidenced by an Emor poll last week, undecided voters amount to a whopping 46 per cent. The said percentage, usually under 40, has been in an upward trend for a couple of months now – so fresh forces would indeed have space to land.

Starting this March, there has been talk about Jaan Männik, recently relieved of duties as chairman of Eesti Pank, creating a new party. Now, Mr Männik has explicitly declared that preparations are underway and the ASBL – which needs to amass a thousand members to qualify for a party – will be registered this fall. The schedule pointing to the fact that, at least as a party, the force will not battle at the upcoming local elections, as the lists will be closed shut on September 10th.

The other newcomer however, Conservative People’s Party of Estonia, under new leadership since April, is aiming at council seats in major cities and counties. Breeding scepticism, as there is little freshness in the new bunch – in essence, The People’s Union (Rahvaliit) renovated.

Nothing much is known about Mr Männik’s party as well. Except that there have been talks with Olari Taal, also known as the midwife to Res Publica. The sole platform issue known being restoration of trust between people and politicians. This is too little to speculate about possible political success. Time will tell...

In Postimees (May 5th), political scientist Mihkel Solvak wrote that the less important elections – as the local ones – are used by some voters to punish the powers that be. For that very reason, for instance, Indrek Tarand made it to the European parliament in 2009. At important elections like the general ones, voters tend to return to their pet politicians.

For fresh forces, this would mean that getting into county councils equals not success at Riigikogu elections. Even so, avoiding the local elections would rob them of the chance to introduce themselves to voters, via such «harmless» elections. And any attempt to take the parliament by aplomb could fail due to voter hesitancy.

However, stuck between the local and general elections, there still are the European Parliament ones – so the newcomers have ample opportunity to show themselves off prior to the grand battle for Riigikogu.

And, should the new parties be left behind Riigikogu doors – quite a possibility, recalling Res Publica and the Greens – at least they could throw a challenge to the four parliament biggies: good for any party to be shaken out of their comfort zones.