Voting fraud scandal undermines Reform Party's popularity rise

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The scandal around vote rigging in internal leadership elections has robbed the Reform Party of the chance to rise to the top of party popularity ratings and the opposition Center Party emerged as the most popular party among Estonian voters in the monthly poll conducted by TNS Emor for the public broadcasting company ERR.

The ruling Reform Party was supported by 24 percent of respondents, the same as the month before. But one would be mistaken to think that the voting fraud scandal had no influence on its support. That's because Emor conducts the survey in two polling periods. For the latest survey, the periods were May 22-29 and June 5-12. The scandal broke exactly in between the two, on May 30, affecting only the second period.

Support for the Reform Party climbed to 29 percent during the first polling period, significantly higher than the 20-25 percent recorded in the last six months, and propelled the party into the lead. After the scandal broke, support fell to 20 percent. Overall, the party's support was 24 percent, putting it in third place.

The Center Party topped the list with 28 percent, growing support by two percentage points from the previous month. Next came the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 26 percent, unchanged from the previous month.

The junior coalition partner, Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL), was backed by 14 percent of respondents, dropping a percentage point from May.

The combined support of the opposition parties Center and SDE was 54 percent against the coalition's 38 percent, having increased by three percentage points from the previous month.

Of the non-parliamentary parties the Conservative People's Party was supported by 3 percent, the Greens by 2 percent and the Independence Party by 1 percent of respondents.

Emor interviewed 920 voting-age citizens for the survey. The research company only counts respondents who have a party preference. The "can't say" contingent made up as much as 44 percent in the latest poll.

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